Kaspi.kz JSC ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Kaspi.kz JSC ADR

KSPINASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.40

Intrinsic Value $209.58median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $92.02Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 128% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+128%)

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Market Cap $17.5B

Enterprise Value −$553.7B

Shares Outstanding 190.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Kaspi.kz entered the second half of 2026 with strong e-Commerce momentum, sustained double-digit Marketplace, Payments and lending growth, and unusually high customer engagement. However, consolidated adjusted EBITDA grew only 5% and net income was flat while funding costs remained elevated and the company invested in Türkiye.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$85.69

Mean target$102.38

High · most bullish analyst$125.09

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$85.6923%

The downside case assumes Marketplace or Payments growth falls below 10%, higher funding costs persist, and Türkiye investment fails to produce sufficient operating leverage. Flat or declining adjusted EBITDA, weak Kasper repeat use, or a delayed Hepsi Bank rollout would indicate that investment is outrunning monetization.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$102.3857%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Marketplace, Payments and the average net loan portfolio continue growing at double-digit rates, while elevated funding costs and Türkiye investment keep adjusted EBITDA growth below revenue growth in the near term. The proposed higher dividend provides some shareholder return support.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$125.0920%

The upside case assumes e-Commerce remains the principal growth engine near its reported 28% constant-currency rate, improving purchases and monetization continue, Kasper increases shopping conversion, and Hepsi Bank establishes a successful Türkiye fintech offering from 2027. Faster EBITDA growth as funding costs ease would strengthen the case.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

e-Commerce constant-currency GMV grew 28% year over year in 2Q 2026, purchases grew 33%, and the third-party take rate reached 16.1%, demonstrating both engagement and monetization progress.
Active customers completed 77 transactions per month, indicating deeply embedded and frequent ecosystem usage.
Marketplace GMV, Payments TPV and the average net loan portfolio grew 15%, 13% and 18%, respectively, providing multiple operating growth engines.
The board proposed increasing the quarterly dividend by 18% to KZT1,000 per ADS, while the acquired and rebranded Hepsi Bank provides an option to add Türkiye fintech products from 2027.

Key Investment Risks

Consolidated revenue grew 15% in 2Q 2026, but adjusted EBITDA grew only 5% and net income was flat, showing weaker incremental earnings conversion.
Payments adjusted EBITDA declined 1% year over year as the company invested in Kaspi Alaqan, despite 13% TPV growth.
Higher funding costs constrained Fintech adjusted EBITDA growth, while Türkiye requires continued investment and integration execution.
Kasper adoption was approximately 20% of eligible consumers after less than one month; the commercial durability, repeat usage and profitability of the AI assistant remain unproven.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.