Kadant Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Kadant Inc

KAINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.12

Intrinsic Value $287.78median of 6 methods · middle span $277-$327based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $268.83Price as of 2 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.2B

Enterprise Value $3.4B

Shares Outstanding 11.8M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Kadant Inc. is a high-quality industrial technology provider with a highly resilient business model. By deriving approximately 74% of its revenue from recurring aftermarket parts and consumables, the company maintains stable cash flows and strong profitability even during capital equipment downcycles. Recent strategic acquisitions, including voestalpine BÖHLER Profil and Clyde Industries, expand its addressable market and long-term growth runway, while its focus on Sustainable Industrial Processing aligns with secular ESG tailwinds.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$335.00

Mean target$361.67

High · most bullish analyst$380.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$335.00

Geopolitical tensions and high energy prices in Europe lead to severe delays in capital project execution. Integration costs for voestalpine BÖHLER Profil run higher than expected, and a slowdown in North American containerboard and wood products markets dampens organic growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$361.67

Matches the consensus mean

Aftermarket demand remains highly resilient at ~71-74% of total revenue, offsetting volatile capital project timing. The company successfully navigates short-term integration dilution from recent acquisitions, achieving its revised full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.178B to $1.203B and adjusted EPS of $12.33 to $12.68.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$380.00

Rapid integration of voestalpine BÖHLER Profil and Clyde Industries drives higher-than-expected synergies. A strong rebound in capital equipment project bookings, combined with robust aftermarket demand, pushes 2026 revenues and adjusted EPS to the high end of guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Highly resilient recurring revenue model with aftermarket parts and consumables representing 74% of Q1 2026 revenue.
Strong track record of capital allocation, including 13 consecutive years of dividend increases and a newly authorized $50M share repurchase program.
Secular tailwinds from industrial sustainability, energy efficiency, and resource optimization.

Key Investment Risks

Short-term EPS dilution and integration risks from recent acquisitions.
Volatility in capital equipment project timing due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Exposure to European industrial weakness and energy price fluctuations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Aftermarket revenue share falling below 70% due to structural customer shifts.
Significant integration failures leading to write-downs of goodwill or intangibles from recent acquisitions.
Severe downturn in global packaging and paper markets impacting core segments.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.