JPMorgan Chase Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $221.07median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $333.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $885.7B Enterprise Value $648.3B Shares Outstanding 2.7B diluted Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary JPMorganChase combines strong underlying profitability and a substantial capital buffer with rising operating costs and normalizing consumer credit. Second-quarter 2026 ROTCE excluding significant items was 23%, while the standardized CET1 ratio was 14.1% against an 11.5% regulatory requirement. Capital return is supportive: the board authorized a new $50 billion repurchase program and announced its intention to raise the quarterly dividend to $1.65. Offsetting these strengths, quarterly expense reached $27.3 billion, up 15% year over year, and credit costs were $2.5 billion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$305.00 Mean target$374.57 High · most bullish analyst$420.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $305.0020% Consumer credit deteriorates beyond ordinary normalization while elevated expense growth persists, compressing underlying returns and reducing management's flexibility to repurchase shares despite the existing authorization. Base CaseCentral scenario $374.5756% Matches the consensus meanStrong franchise profitability and capital remain broadly durable, but higher expenses and gradually normalizing consumer credit absorb part of the benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $420.0024% Underlying ROTCE remains near the second-quarter 2026 adjusted level, credit normalization stays contained, and excess capital supports the planned dividend increase and discretionary repurchases. Continued execution under these conditions would support positive earnings and capital-return momentum. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |