Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

JLL entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 10% in local currency, Advisory revenue increased 21%, and adjusted EBITDA increased 33%. Accelerate 2030 targets 8% annual revenue growth, 12% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 16% adjusted EPS growth on average through the cycle, while the remaining repurchase authorization was $2.6 billion at June 30. These strengths are substantially reflected in a share price near its official 52-week high.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$315.00
Mean target$412.70
High · most bullish analyst$500.00
Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$315.0020%

Commercial real-estate transaction activity weakens, causing Leasing Advisory and Capital Markets growth to fall below plan. Operating leverage then reverses, while negative first-half free cash flow and execution spending reduce near-term capital-allocation flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$412.7055%
Matches the consensus mean

Growth moderates from the exceptional first-half pace but remains broadly consistent with Accelerate 2030. Resilient services offset normal Advisory cyclicality, and capital returns continue.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$500.0025%

Advisory demand remains substantially above the through-cycle plan, Workplace Management continues expanding, and platform leverage converts revenue growth into profit growth above Accelerate 2030 targets. Continued repurchases would further support per-share compounding.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Second-quarter 2026 Advisory revenue increased 21% in local currency, including 24% growth in Leasing Advisory and 19% in Capital Markets Services.
  • Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 33% in local currency, materially faster than the 10% local-currency revenue increase.
  • JLL had $2.6 billion of repurchase authorization remaining and reported a 0.7x net leverage ratio at June 30, 2026.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Advisory activities are transaction-sensitive; exceptionally strong 2026 growth could reverse if leasing, investment-sale, or financing activity weakens.
  • First-half 2026 free cash flow remained negative $381.9 million despite strong earnings growth, reflecting working-capital seasonality and investment requirements.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.