Johnson Outdoors Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLeisure Products Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $44.91Price as of 2 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $470.6M Enterprise Value $295.4M Shares Outstanding 10.3M diluted Moat Rating None Last ex-dividend16 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) is demonstrating a solid operational recovery in fiscal 2026, highlighted by a 15.5% year-over-year revenue increase and a significant expansion in gross margin to 38.8% in Q2 2026. The company's market-leading brands, particularly in the Fishing segment (Minn Kota, Humminbird), continue to show strong consumer resonance. Furthermore, JOUT maintains a highly robust, debt-free balance sheet with $107.9 million in cash and short-term investments, supporting its ongoing dividend policy. However, the stock faces near-term headwinds, including negative trailing twelve-month earnings (TTM EPS of -$1.51), high vulnerability to cyclical discretionary consumer spending, and potential uncertainty surrounding the transition of key leadership roles. Given these mixed dynamics, a neutral view is warranted as the market monitors the sustainability of its margin recovery and broader retail channel normalization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$55.00 Mean target$55.00 High · most bullish analyst$55.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a prolonged economic downturn or persistent inflationary pressures that severely impact consumer discretionary spending on high-ticket outdoor recreation equipment. Additionally, if retailer reordering patterns remain soft due to elevated channel inventories or unfavorable seasonal weather, JOUT's revenue growth could stall, leading to continued operating losses and pressure on the dividend payout sustainability. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that retail channel inventories continue to normalize and consumer demand for outdoor recreation products remains stable. Under this scenario, Johnson Outdoors successfully leverages its product innovation pipeline and cost-savings initiatives to sustain gross margins near 38% and gradually return to full-year profitability. The company's debt-free balance sheet provides a strong safety net, allowing it to maintain its quarterly dividend of $0.33 per Class A share. Bull CaseUpside scenario A debt-free balance sheet with substantial cash reserves provides a strong competitive advantage, allowing the company to consistently fund premium product innovation (such as Minn Kota and Humminbird) and sustain dividend payments even during cyclical outdoor market downturns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |