Johnson & Johnson Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General Beta (adjusted)0.50 Intrinsic Value $173.11median of 6 methods · middle span $154-$449based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $256.03Price as of 2 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $617B Enterprise Value $635.9B Shares Outstanding 2.5B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date14 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Johnson & Johnson entered the second half of 2026 with solid operating momentum: second-quarter reported sales increased 6.6%, Innovative Medicine operational sales increased 6.8%, and management raised full-year reported-sales and adjusted-EPS guidance. Rapid growth across oncology, TREMFYA, SPRAVATO and CAPLYTA is offsetting substantial STELARA erosion, while the 64th consecutive annual dividend increase supports the defensive case. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$190.00 Mean target$272.50 High · most bullish analyst$305.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $190.0020% Patent-related erosion outpaces replacement-product growth, causing sales or adjusted EPS to fall below the July guidance floors. Adverse litigation, regulatory or pricing developments and delays to the Orthopaedics separation further weaken execution and investor confidence. Base CaseCentral scenario $272.5055% Matches the consensus meanJohnson & Johnson delivers within its July 2026 guidance ranges, with newer medicines and MedTech innovation broadly offsetting STELARA and other mature-product erosion. Litigation, healthcare pricing and regulation, and separation execution remain manageable but constrain conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $305.0025% Johnson & Johnson exceeds its raised 2026 guidance as oncology, TREMFYA, SPRAVATO, CAPLYTA and newer MedTech products sustain strong growth, while the Orthopaedics separation progresses within the announced timetable and improves portfolio focus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |