Johnson Controls International plc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products Beta (adjusted)1.20 Intrinsic Value $170.93median of 6 methods · middle span $77-$278based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $156.24Price as of 2 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $94.6B Enterprise Value $103.1B Shares Outstanding 605.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Johnson Controls enters the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: third-quarter organic sales grew 10%, organic orders grew 27%, backlog reached $21.0 billion, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $5.05. The portfolio is positioned for sustained demand in data centers and other mission-critical environments, while the proprietary business system offers additional execution and productivity potential. However, the investor-relations stock quote of $139.59 already reflects substantial optimism, the Americas backlog increasingly depends on large data-center projects, EMEA remains exposed to geopolitical disruption, and reported results continue to require material non-GAAP adjustments. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$129.00 Mean target$163.11 High · most bullish analyst$190.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $129.0018% Data-center project timing weakens, backlog growth decelerates, EMEA disruption persists, and operating leverage or cash conversion falls below guidance. Slower backlog conversion and continued transformation or restructuring adjustments reduce confidence in earnings quality and compress the premium embedded in the current share price. Base CaseCentral scenario $163.1158% Matches the consensus meanJohnson Controls approximately delivers its fiscal 2026 guidance of 8% organic growth, 45% to 50% operating leverage, $5.05 adjusted EPS and 100% adjusted free cash flow conversion. Record backlog supports continued growth, but order growth gradually normalizes and execution benefits are increasingly reflected in the share price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $190.0024% Backlog converts faster than expected, data-center cooling demand remains durable, fiscal 2026 organic growth and adjusted EPS exceed raised guidance, and the Johnson Controls Business System sustains strong operating leverage and margin expansion. Alloy Enterprises and newer thermal-management designs broaden the addressable opportunity in high-density AI infrastructure. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |