JFrog Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

JFrog Ltd

FROGNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)1.16

Intrinsic Value $61.69median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $97.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12B

Enterprise Value $11.9B

Shares Outstanding 122.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

JFrog entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue grew 29%, cloud revenue grew 53%, net dollar retention reached 121%, Enterprise+ contributed 59% of revenue, and customers above $1 million of ARR increased to 97. Remaining performance obligations grew 38%, supporting near-term visibility. The principal counterweights are continued GAAP losses, substantial share-based compensation, execution and competitive risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$90.00

Mean target$111.71

High · most bullish analyst$120.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$90.0018%

Expansion weakens toward or below the prior-year 118% net-dollar-retention benchmark, cloud and Enterprise+ mix retrench toward prior-year levels, guidance is reduced below its current lower bound, or competitive and technology shifts impair customer acquisition and retention.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$111.7158%

Matches the consensus mean

JFrog executes within its $648 million to $652 million fiscal-2026 revenue outlook while sustaining healthy cloud adoption, platform expansion, and positive non-GAAP operating performance. GAAP profitability remains constrained by share-based compensation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$120.0024%

Cloud adoption, security demand, and AI-related software-supply-chain governance remain durable; cloud growth stays near the second-quarter pace, net dollar retention remains around 121% or better, large-customer expansion continues, and revenue exceeds the upper end of the 2026 outlook.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Cloud revenue grew 53% year over year and reached 53% of total second-quarter revenue, indicating rapid migration toward the cloud-delivered offering.
Net dollar retention was 121%, while Enterprise+ represented 59% of revenue, evidencing expansion and broader platform adoption.
Customers above $1 million of ARR increased 59% to 97, and remaining performance obligations grew 38%, supporting enterprise traction and contracted visibility.

Key Investment Risks

JFrog remained GAAP-loss-making in the second quarter, with an $13.2 million operating loss and an 8.1% negative operating margin despite positive non-GAAP results.
Second-quarter share-based compensation was $39.6 million, creating a material difference between GAAP and non-GAAP profitability.
JFrog identifies customer retention, sales execution, acquisition integration, security incidents, technological change, competition, and macroeconomic conditions as factors that could cause results to differ materially from expectations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.