Jerash holdings (US) Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Jerash holdings (US) Inc

JRSHNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryApparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value $9.20median of 6 methods · middle span $4-$14based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $5.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 58% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+58%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $74M

Enterprise Value $66.1M

Shares Outstanding 13.9M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. (JRSH) has demonstrated a powerful operational turnaround in fiscal 2026, returning to profitability on record revenues of $166.3 million (up 14% YoY). The company is successfully executing a capacity-led growth strategy, supported by its fully booked facilities through December 2026 and a multi-phase expansion plan to increase output by up to 40%. Crucially, Jerash is mitigating its historical customer concentration risk, reducing its revenue exposure to VF Corporation from 65% to 52% by scaling new global accounts like South Korea's Hansoll Group. Operating out of Jordan, Jerash continues to leverage duty-free and quota-free export advantages to the US and EU, positioning it as a prime beneficiary of global sourcing shifts away from Asia.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$6.00

Mean target$6.50

High · most bullish analyst$7.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, causing severe logistical disruptions at shipping ports and inflating freight costs. Key customers defer or reduce order volumes due to regional instability. Delays in factory renovations or labor shortages in Jordan limit capacity growth, while gross margins compress below 14% due to underutilized facilities and rising compliance costs.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully integrates its newly acquired sixth factory in Amman, expanding production capacity by 15% by the end of calendar 2026. Revenue grows by 20-22% in Q1 FY2027, in line with management guidance, and maintains double-digit growth for the full year. Gross margins stabilize within the 15-17% target range, driven by automation and economies of scale. Customer diversification continues to progress, further reducing reliance on VF Corporation while maintaining high utilization rates.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Jerash Holdings benefits from structural duty-free access to the US and European markets via Jordan's free trade agreements, allowing it to capture market share as global apparel brands diversify supply chains away from China. The company is executing a phased capacity expansion to double production output over five years, supported by a strong balance sheet, progress in customer diversification (such as onboarding Hansoll Textile and Hugo Boss), and a high dividend yield.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong revenue turnaround in fiscal 2026, reaching a record $166.3 million with net income swinging to a $3.6 million profit.
Production facilities are fully booked through December 2026, indicating robust near-term demand.
Successful customer diversification, reducing VF Corporation concentration from 65% to 52% YoY.
Strategic capacity expansion underway with the acquisition of a sixth factory in Jordan, projected to increase capacity by up to 40%.
Favorable trade dynamics, utilizing Jordan's free trade agreements with the US and EU to export duty-free.

Key Investment Risks

High customer concentration remains, with VF Corporation still accounting for 52% of total sales.
Geopolitical risks associated with operating primarily in Jordan and relying on Middle Eastern shipping infrastructure.
Capacity constraints limit short-term growth potential until new facilities are fully operational.
Potential dilution risk from future stock issuances under the company's stock incentive plans.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material drop in orders from VF Corporation that is not offset by other clients, leading to underutilized capacity.
Severe regional conflict in the Middle East that halts factory operations or completely blocks key export routes.
Gross margins falling consistently below 14%, indicating an inability to pass on rising costs or manage operational efficiency.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.