JELD-WEN Holding Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products Beta (adjusted)1.75 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $170.1M Enterprise Value $112.8M Shares Outstanding 86.3M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary JELD-WEN is currently undergoing a multi-year operational transformation aimed at streamlining its manufacturing footprint, reducing fixed costs, and upgrading its product mix. While these self-help initiatives are highly constructive and draw parallels to successful historical industry turnarounds, the company is severely constrained by a prolonged cyclical trough in both new housing construction and the repair-and-remodeling markets across North America and Europe. With high financial leverage, negative trailing free cash flow, and a cautious near-term outlook, the stock is best viewed as a Hold until macroeconomic headwinds subside and operational improvements consistently translate to the bottom line. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1.50 Mean target$1.65 High · most bullish analyst$2.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.6015% The housing market downturn deepens, and price-cost pressures intensify, causing further volume contraction. Transformation milestones are delayed, and the company fails to generate positive free cash flow, leading to liquidity constraints and potential covenant breaches under its highly leveraged capital structure. Base CaseCentral scenario $2.6160% Core revenues continue to decline by 3% to 6% in FY26 due to persistent volume pressures, but cost-reduction initiatives keep Adjusted EBITDA within the guided range of $100M to $150M. Leverage remains elevated but manageable, and the stock trades in a tight range as the market waits for a clearer cyclical inflection point. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3.2525% The multi-year transformation plan successfully rationalizes the manufacturing network, driving Adjusted EBITDA margins toward the low-teens. A swifter-than-expected recovery in housing starts and home improvement spending, combined with EU Green Deal-aligned retrofit subsidies, accelerates volume recovery. Asset monetization of non-core holdings provides liquidity to rapidly deleverage the balance sheet. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |