Jefferies Financial Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)1.35 Intrinsic Value $138.52median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $45.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 206% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+206%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.2B Enterprise Value $12.9B Shares Outstanding 223.6M diluted Moat Rating None Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Jefferies entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter net revenues reached $2.206 billion, Investment Banking net revenues increased 57% year over year, Equities produced record quarterly net revenues, and return on adjusted tangible shareholders' equity reached 12.8%. The balanced view reflects offsetting considerations: tangible gross leverage increased to 9.0 times, the compensation ratio was 53.9%, and Asset Management fees plus investment return declined from the prior-year quarter. The evidence supports continued monitoring rather than a valuation-dependent directional call. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.00 Mean target$61.50 High · most bullish analyst$83.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.0021% The adverse case is a reversal in transaction activity and trading conditions before Jefferies realizes the expected benefits of its backlog and strategic investments. A downturn would be amplified by the increase in tangible gross leverage, elevated compensation costs, and variability in Asset Management investment returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $61.5055% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes that strong Investment Banking and Equities activity continues but moderates from record levels, while expense ratios and higher balance-sheet leverage limit incremental returns. Bull CaseUpside scenario $83.0024% The favorable case is continued conversion of the Investment Banking backlog, further market-share gains in Advisory and Equity Underwriting, sustained Equities strength, and successful completion of the Hildene investment that management expected to be immediately accretive. These factors could extend the record first-half momentum and improve operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |