JBT Marel Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $175.71median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $106.86Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 64% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+64%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.5B Enterprise Value $7.1B Shares Outstanding 52.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary JBT Marel Corporation (NYSE: JBTM) represents a compelling investment opportunity as a newly unified global leader in food and beverage technology solutions. Following the landmark merger of JBT Corporation and Marel hf. in January 2025, the combined entity has established an unmatched competitive moat, processing an estimated 50% of the world's animal protein. The investment thesis is anchored on significant post-merger synergy capture, a highly resilient business model with 50% recurring revenue, and secular tailwinds driving automation in the food processing sector. While integration and internal control risks exist, early operational results in 2026 demonstrate strong execution, rapid deleveraging, and robust cash generation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$118.00 Mean target$176.42 High · most bullish analyst$210.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Integration friction, cultural misalignment, or prolonged material weaknesses in internal controls disrupt operations. Severe macroeconomic downturns or escalating global trade tariffs (exceeding mitigation capabilities) compress margins. Customer capital expenditure in the food and beverage sector slows down, causing organic revenue growth to stall below 3% and delaying the deleveraging profile. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its integration roadmap, realizing $60 million in cost synergies in 2026 and progressing toward its 2028 target of $150 million in run-rate savings. Organic revenue grows at a steady 5-7% CAGR, driven by strong poultry demand and digital platform adoption (AXIN suite). Adjusted EBITDA margins expand toward the 2028 target of 20%, and cumulative free cash flow exceeds $1 billion over the 2026-2028 period, allowing leverage to decline to 2.0x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |