JBG SMITH Properties Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Diversified Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $21.92median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 111% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+111%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $800.9M Enterprise Value $3.3B Shares Outstanding 77.2M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary JBG SMITH Properties (NYSE: JBGS) is navigating a complex structural transition, shifting its portfolio concentration away from legacy commercial office spaces toward mixed-use and multifamily assets, primarily centered in the National Landing submarket of Washington, D.C. While the long-term placemaking strategy is anchored by major institutional drivers like Amazon's HQ2 and the Virginia Tech Innovation Campus, the company's near-term performance remains heavily pressured by office sector headwinds, elevated leverage, and negative same-store NOI growth. A 'Hold' recommendation reflects the balance between its high-quality development pipeline and the execution risks associated with its ongoing portfolio repositioning. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$13.00 High · most bullish analyst$13.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged weakness in the Washington, D.C. office market, leading to further occupancy declines below 73% and deeper rental rate cuts on second-generation leases. Delays or cost overruns in the development pipeline, combined with sustained high interest rates, would strain cash flows, threaten dividend coverage, and force further asset write-downs. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that JBG SMITH successfully maintains stable occupancy in its multifamily portfolio while gradually executing office-to-residential conversions, such as the proposed redevelopment at Tysons Dulles Plaza. Commercial leasing activity is expected to remain steady but slow, keeping overall commercial occupancy in the mid-70% range. Elevated interest rates and high leverage (Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 12.7x) will continue to weigh on earnings, keeping FFO growth modest through 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |