Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value $676.75median of 6 methods · middle span $169-$1,103based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $233.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 190% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+190%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $15.1B Enterprise Value $17.9B Shares Outstanding 67.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Jazz enters the Ziihera first-line GEA launch with positive Phase 3 overall-survival evidence, an established rare-disease commercial platform, continued Xywav patient growth and early Modeyso uptake. These strengths are balanced by substantial launch expectations already reflected in the August 26 market reference price, Ziihera's severe-diarrhea warning, the need for ACTION to confirm Modeyso's clinical benefit, and the planned removal of Zepzelca's second-line indication. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$196.00 Mean target$281.35 High · most bullish analyst$315.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $196.0020% Ziihera adoption underperforms because severe diarrhea constrains use, Xywav net patient additions turn non-positive, and Modeyso's confirmatory ACTION analysis is delayed or fails to support durable benefit. Base CaseCentral scenario $281.3555% Matches the consensus meanZiihera adoption is meaningful but tempered by tolerability management and launch execution; Xywav maintains a broadly stable-to-growing patient base; and Modeyso progresses toward its expected first-half 2027 ACTION analysis. Bull CaseUpside scenario $315.0025% Ziihera rapidly becomes a leading first-line HER2-positive GEA therapy after FDA approval and positive overall-survival results; detailed fourth-quarter data sustain physician adoption; Xywav patient growth remains positive; and Modeyso continues gaining patients ahead of a timely, favorable ACTION analysis. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |