James Hardie Industries plc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryBuilding Materials Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value $18.40median of 6 methods · middle span $9-$26based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.6B Enterprise Value $18.6B Shares Outstanding 580.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary James Hardie entered FY27 with strong operating momentum: Q1 pro forma sales rose 12%, Siding & Trim organic sales rose 20%, adjusted EBITDA reached $422.1 million, and management raised full-year sales and EBITDA expectations while retaining its at-least-$500-million free-cash-flow target. The balanced view reflects management's warning that this performance does not represent a meaningful housing-market recovery, the likelihood that favorable prior-year inventory comparisons moderate, and the execution and leverage obligations associated with integrating AZEK. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.50 Mean target$35.43 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.5020% Housing affordability and weak construction activity persist, the Q1 Siding & Trim comparison benefit fades faster than expected, and DR&A shipment recovery or AZEK synergy realization disappoints. Results fall below the lower ends of the FY27 adjusted EBITDA or free-cash-flow outlook, slowing deleveraging and weakening the investment case. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.4358% Matches the consensus meanJames Hardie delivers within its raised FY27 ranges as organic Siding & Trim growth, normalized DR&A inventories, operating efficiencies, and AZEK synergies offset a still-soft housing environment. Free cash flow reaches at least $500 million and supports gradual deleveraging. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.0022% Execution remains above plan: Siding & Trim sustains organic growth after prior-year comparison benefits fade, DR&A sell-through converts into normalized shipments, and cost and commercial synergies lift FY27 sales and adjusted EBITDA toward or above the upper ends of the raised outlook. A housing or repair-and-remodel improvement, which management has not assumed, would provide additional upside. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |