Jakks Pacific Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Jakks Pacific Inc

JAKKNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryLeisure Products

Beta (adjusted)1.27

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $25.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $291.8M

Enterprise Value $232.3M

Shares Outstanding 12.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend29 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

JAKKS Pacific is successfully navigating a transitional period in the toy industry by leveraging high-profile entertainment partnerships (such as Nintendo's Super Mario and SEGA's Sonic the Hedgehog) and expanding its international footprint. While North American retail caution and elevated tariff expenses present near-term headwinds, robust international growth (up 38% in Q1 2026) and a strong balance sheet with $64 million in cash provide a solid foundation. The upcoming launch of a next-generation global platform for anime, manga, and digital creator products in late 2026/2027 represents a high-margin growth catalyst that is not yet fully priced in by the market.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$27.00

Mean target$28.50

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$19.0020%

North American retail caution intensifies, leading to further inventory destocking. Supply chain disruptions or escalating trade tariffs further compress gross margins, while key entertainment properties underperform expectations, forcing increased closeout sales and putting pressure on the quarterly dividend.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$28.5050%

Matches the consensus mean

International sales continue to steadily offset North American retail softness. Gross margins stabilize around 33% despite ongoing tariff pressures, supported by disciplined SG&A management and steady demand for core licensed properties like Disney Princess, Frozen, and Super Mario. The company maintains its $0.25 quarterly dividend.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$30.0030%

Rapid acceleration of international sales combined with a highly successful rollout of the new anime, manga, and digital creator platform in late 2026. Strong theatrical momentum from upcoming entertainment releases drives record-breaking toy sales, while successful tariff refund claims restore gross margins back above 34%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong portfolio of premier entertainment licenses including Nintendo (Super Mario), Disney (Princess, Frozen), and SEGA (Sonic the Hedgehog).
Robust international growth momentum, with Q1 2026 international sales up 38% year-over-year to $29 million.
Solid balance sheet with $64 million in cash and cash equivalents and flat inventory levels, providing financial flexibility.
Consistent shareholder returns supported by a $0.25 per share quarterly dividend.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration of manufacturing assets in China, exposing the company to ongoing tariff volatility and trade policy risks.
Dependence on seasonal toy sales and theatrical release cycles of major entertainment partners.
Intense competition from larger industry peers such as Mattel and Hasbro who command significantly higher market shares.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained decline in international sales growth below 10% year-over-year.
Gross margins falling below 31% due to unmitigated tariff expenses or excessive closeout sales.
Loss of key licensing agreements with major partners like Nintendo or Disney.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.