Jack In The Box Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Jack In The Box Inc

JACKNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryRestaurants

Beta (adjusted)1.26

Intrinsic Value $22.06median of 4 methods · middle span $20-$25based on filings through 5 Jul 2026

Market Price $12.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 74% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+74%)

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Market Cap $243M

Enterprise Value $1.7B

Shares Outstanding 19.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Mar 2025

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Jack in the Box Inc. is undergoing a significant operational and governance transition under its 'JACK on Track' recovery plan, overseen by newly appointed interim CEO Mark King. While the company's asset-light franchise model remains fundamentally sound, near-term performance is heavily pressured by declining same-store sales, margin compression from labor and commodity inflation, and a highly leveraged balance sheet. The stock is currently valued at a deep discount relative to historical averages and peers, reflecting these execution risks and upcoming debt maturities. A tactical Hold is recommended as the market waits for tangible signs of turnaround traction and successful debt refinancing.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.00

Mean target$16.12

High · most bullish analyst$28.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case materializes if same-store sales declines accelerate due to intense promotional competition from larger QSR peers and weakening low-income consumer demand. Refinancing of the $650M+ upcoming debt is delayed or executed at highly punitive interest rates, severely impacting EPS and cash flow. Franchisee health deteriorates, leading to higher-than-expected store closures and limited unit growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes the company successfully executes its 'JACK on Track' plan, stabilizing same-store sales near flat to slightly negative in FY 2026 before recovering to modest positive growth in FY 2027. Restaurant-level margins stabilize around 17% as commodity inflation moderates. The company successfully refinances its upcoming 2026 and 2027 debt maturities, though at higher prevailing interest rates, which modestly pressures EPS but removes immediate solvency concerns.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

The bull case for Jack in the Box centers on its 'JACK on Track' turnaround strategy, which focuses on transitioning to an asset-light franchise model, selling off corporate real estate, and paying down debt (such as the $99 million prepayment of Class A-2 notes). Additionally, the divestiture of the underperforming Del Taco brand allows the company to focus entirely on its core brand. Value investors like Callodine Capital Management have taken significant stakes, betting on debt restructuring and operational efficiency to drive margin expansion and organic growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Iconic fast-food brand with nearly 75 years of brand equity and a highly franchised, asset-light business model.
Strong governance oversight and turnaround expertise brought by activist-backed board members and interim CEO Mark King.
Significant real estate holdings that provide optionality for capital generation through sale-leaseback transactions.

Key Investment Risks

High leverage profile (net debt/EBITDA ~6.3x) with substantial near-term debt maturities requiring refinancing in a high-interest-rate environment.
Persistent margin pressure from labor cost inflation (particularly in California due to AB 1228) and elevated commodity costs.
Declining same-store sales and traffic underperformance relative to larger, better-capitalized quick-service competitors.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to refinance the 2019-1 Class A-2-II Notes by their anticipated repayment date in August 2026.
A drop in company-owned restaurant-level margins below 15.0%.
Same-store sales declines exceeding mid-single digits for consecutive quarters.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.