J M Smucker Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods & Meats Beta (adjusted)0.50 Intrinsic Value $92.69median of 6 methods · middle span $36-$123based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $115.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.4B Enterprise Value $18.9B Shares Outstanding 106.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary J.M. Smucker entered fiscal 2027 with better-than-expected first-quarter sales, volume/mix, adjusted earnings, and free cash flow, prompting management to raise full-year guidance. The quality of the earnings increase is tempered by a material tariff-refund benefit, continued expected full-year sales contraction, and persistent Sweet Baked Snacks weakness. These competing factors support a neutral stance pending evidence that underlying volume growth and Hostess optimization can sustain profitability without unusual benefits. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$107.00 Mean target$126.06 High · most bullish analyst$139.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $107.0018% The downside case occurs if pricing pressures volume, Sweet Baked Snacks falls further from its first-quarter 7% sales decline, or adjusted margin undershoots management's approximately 38.75% outlook. Earnings would also appear less durable if the underlying business cannot replace the fiscal 2027 adjusted-EPS benefit from tariff refunds. Base CaseCentral scenario $126.0658% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes results remain within management's revised fiscal 2027 outlook: net sales decline 1%-2%, adjusted EPS reaches $10.50-$11.00, and free cash flow is approximately $1.1 billion. Continued strength in coffee and Uncrustables is partly offset by Sweet Baked Snacks weakness and the nonrecurring nature of tariff refunds. Bull CaseUpside scenario $139.0024% The upside case requires continued organic volume growth in coffee, Uncrustables, and Away From Home; sustained margin improvement after excluding tariff refunds; and stabilization of Sweet Baked Snacks. First-quarter net sales increased 5%, consolidated volume/mix contributed one percentage point, and management raised fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS and free-cash-flow guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |