Itau Unibanco Holding SA ADR Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)0.43 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $8.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $93.1B Shares Outstanding 11B diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Itaú entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating execution: 2Q26 recurring managerial earnings were R$12.4 billion, consolidated recurring ROE was 24.3%, loans more than 90 days overdue remained at 1.9%, and CET1 improved to 12.3%. Credit growth and expense discipline support the earnings outlook, but the revised 2%-5% outlook for commissions, fees and insurance signals softer non-spread revenue momentum. A Hold assessment is appropriate because operating quality is high. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.10 Mean target$8.84 High · most bullish analyst$10.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.1020% The bear case assumes that slower activity weakens fee income and loan demand while delinquencies rise above the stable 2Q26 level. Cost of credit exceeding the R$43.5 billion guidance ceiling, combined with expense growth and adverse Brazilian macroeconomic or currency conditions, would compress returns and weaken the ADR investment case. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.8455% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes continued high profitability, credit growth broadly consistent with the 5.5%-9.5% full-year guidance range, cost of credit within R$38.5-R$43.5 billion, and non-interest expense growth within 1.5%-5.5%. Softer fee and insurance growth partly offsets resilient lending and financial-margin performance. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.0025% The bull case assumes that credit growth remains healthy without impairing underwriting quality, the over-90-day delinquency ratio stays near 1.9%, financial margin with clients develops toward the upper part of management's range, and operating efficiency continues to improve. Strong internal capital generation would preserve strategic flexibility and support shareholder distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |