IRIDEX Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $0.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.1M Enterprise Value $7.4M Shares Outstanding 17.6M diluted Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary IRIDEX Corporation (IRIX) is executing a successful operational turnaround under its new leadership team, focusing on cost-structure optimization, high-margin recurring consumable probe sales, and strategic partnerships. Despite short-term gross margin pressures from tariff developments and manufacturing transitions, the company's lean operating model and strong clinical foundation position it to achieve sustainable profitability and positive operating cash flow in fiscal year 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.75 Mean target$2.75 High · most bullish analyst$2.75 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.0015% Persistent international supply constraints, prolonged regulatory delays, and escalating tariff costs continue to depress gross margins. Middle East market disruptions are more severe than anticipated, and cash burn increases, forcing the company to seek dilutive financing or draw heavily on its strategic investment options. Base CaseCentral scenario $2.7555% Matches the consensus meanIRIDEX achieves its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance of $51 million to $53 million and generates positive operating cash flow. Operating expenses remain tightly controlled within the $19 million to $19.5 million range. Consumable probe sales continue to grow steadily, offsetting temporary international supply constraints in the retina segment. Bull CaseUpside scenario $3.5030% Rapid expansion of the Cyclo G6 product family and successful regulatory approvals in international markets drive high-margin probe utilization. The transition to lower-cost contract manufacturers is completed ahead of schedule, expanding gross margins toward the 45-50% target. Strategic distribution partnerships, such as with Topcon and EyeProGPO, accelerate market penetration. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |