IREN Ltd Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)3.19 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $40.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16B Enterprise Value $17.7B Shares Outstanding 394.1M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary IREN has established substantial AI infrastructure demand through approximately USD 4 billion of contracted annualized run-rate revenue, but only approximately USD 1 billion was operating in late August 2026. The central investment question is therefore execution: commissioning the planned 150,000-GPU fleet, completing customer acceptance and converting contracted capacity into recognized operating revenue. The Microsoft agreement, NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status and more than 4.5 GW of secured grid-connected power support the strategic case, while the short deployment window, large capital requirements and customer concentration warrant a balanced recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$41.00 Mean target$81.73 High · most bullish analyst$131.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario GPU delivery, data-center commissioning or customer acceptance delays prevent operating AI Cloud ARR from approaching the stated year-end target. Capital requirements, potential equity issuance and reliance on a small number of large contracts then outweigh the strategic value of the power and data-center portfolio. Base CaseCentral scenario Most contracted deployments progress, but commissioning and customer acceptance remain phased through the end of 2026, leaving some timing risk between contracted ARR, operating ARR and recognized revenue. The Microsoft deployment and NVIDIA-validated infrastructure support commercial credibility, while capital intensity and the remaining deployment gap limit conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario IREN commissions its planned 150,000-GPU fleet on schedule, exceeds USD 4 billion of operating AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue by year-end 2026 and demonstrates high availability and customer acceptance across Microsoft and other AI developers. Successful execution would validate the vertically integrated model and create a foundation for further expansion across more than 4.5 GW of secured power. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |