IQM Quantum Computers Oyj ADR Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage and Peripherals Beta (adjusted)0.66 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $10.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.9B Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary IQM Quantum Computers Oyj (IQMX) has established itself as a European leader in superconducting quantum computing, becoming the first European quantum firm to list on a major U.S. exchange following its de-SPAC merger with Real Asset Acquisition Corp. in July 2026. The company boasts strong technical execution, a vertically integrated model (including its own chip fab), and a leading number of on-premises system deliveries. However, near-term commercialization remains a challenge, with recent technical milestones (such as its railway scheduling algorithm with Deutsche Bahn) lacking immediate revenue paths. Additionally, recent warrant exercises have introduced dilutive pressure, making a Hold recommendation appropriate as the market digests the post-merger capital structure and awaits concrete commercial contracts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.50 Enterprise adoption of quantum computing slows down, and pilot projects fail to transition into material revenue. Continued high R&D cash burn forces further dilutive capital raises, and the stock faces downward pressure from warrant overhang and lack of near-term profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.50 IQM continues to deliver on-premises systems to supercomputing centers and research labs at a steady pace, maintaining its position as a top European player. Revenue grows gradually, but the stock experiences near-term volatility as the market monitors dilution from warrant exercises and seeks clearer signs of enterprise-scale commercial adoption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.00 IQM successfully converts its technical leadership and pilot projects into large-scale commercial contracts. The dual-listing structure in the U.S. and Finland attracts robust institutional capital, and the company accelerates its roadmap toward fault-tolerant quantum computing using its $233.5 million in net merger proceeds. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |