IonQ Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

IonQ Inc

IONQNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryComputer Hardware

Beta (adjusted)2.55

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $43.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $17.8B

Enterprise Value $16.6B

Shares Outstanding 403.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

IonQ has demonstrated exceptional reported growth, raised 2026 revenue guidance to $280-$290 million, broadened its commercial and international mix, and expanded into networking, sensing, security, space communications, and semiconductor fabrication. These strengths are balanced by substantial operating losses, acquisition-integration demands, and continued dependence on successful execution of a technically ambitious fault-tolerant roadmap.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$44.78

Mean target$67.68

High · most bullish analyst$100.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$44.7819%

Revenue falls below the guidance floor, remaining performance obligations lose momentum, or integration and manufacturing investment outpace commercialization. Delays in the 256-qubit and fault-tolerant roadmap would weaken the strategic case for the enlarged platform.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$67.6857%

Matches the consensus mean

IonQ delivers within its $280-$290 million 2026 revenue range and maintains broad commercial, international, and multi-product demand, while technical and SkyWater-integration progress remains incremental and operating investment stays elevated.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$100.0024%

IonQ reaches the upper end of its $280-$290 million 2026 revenue guidance, converts strong remaining-performance-obligation growth into deployments, demonstrates meaningful progress on its 256-qubit system and fault-tolerant architecture, and uses SkyWater's domestic fabrication and packaging capabilities to accelerate product scaling.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $80.1 million, increased 287% year over year, and supported raised full-year guidance of $280-$290 million.
IonQ reported 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity and published a detailed architecture intended to scale fault-tolerant systems toward 10,000 physical qubits and beyond.
The completed SkyWater acquisition adds domestic semiconductor fabrication, advanced packaging, and manufacturing capabilities to IonQ's platform.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss was $120.3 million, indicating that rapid reported growth has not yet produced positive operating economics.
The enlarged acquisition-driven platform introduces integration, execution, and capital-allocation complexity, while SkyWater consumed approximately $1.0 billion of IonQ's reported cash and investments on a pro-forma basis.
Some announced commercial initiatives are non-binding frameworks that may not produce definitive agreements or revenue.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.