Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $44.65Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $7.4B Enterprise Value $8.8B Shares Outstanding 166.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ionis offers catalyst-dependent upside from its transition into a multi-product commercial biotechnology company. Second-quarter 2026 total revenue was $268 million and commercial revenue was $119 million, while the severe-hypertriglyceridemia approval materially broadened TRYNGOLZA's addressable population. The near-term opportunity includes the September 2026 zilganersen FDA decision, the October 2026 bepirovirsen FDA decision and the pending pelacarsen Lp(a) HORIZON readout. Approximately $2.1 billion of cash and short-term investments provides substantial launch and pipeline funding. The investment remains high risk: CARDIO-TTRansform did not meet its primary endpoint, and value creation depends on commercial uptake and additional binary clinical and regulatory outcomes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$66.00 Mean target$89.33 High · most bullish analyst$115.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $66.0025% Commercial revenue underperforms guidance, reimbursement or uptake constrains the independent launches, and one or more major regulatory or outcomes catalysts fail. A negative pelacarsen result following the CARDIO-TTRansform primary-endpoint miss would further reduce confidence in partnered cardiovascular optionality. Base CaseCentral scenario $89.3353% Matches the consensus meanIonis delivers within its $875-$900 million FY2026 revenue guidance, TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA continue scaling, and zilganersen receives approval, while the valuation retains a discount for clinical uncertainty following CARDIO-TTRansform. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.0022% TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA adoption exceeds expectations, zilganersen is approved and launches successfully, and pelacarsen produces a positive cardiovascular-outcomes result. These outcomes would validate both the independent-commercialization strategy and the partnered late-stage pipeline, supporting a materially higher strategic value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |