Invivyd Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Invivyd Inc

IVVDNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $0.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $240.7M

Enterprise Value $80.6M

Shares Outstanding 294.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Invivyd is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company leveraging its proprietary INVYMAB platform to rapidly generate monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting evolving viral threats, starting with SARS-CoV-2. While its lead product, PEMGARDA, has achieved steady commercial progress with Q1 2026 net product revenue of $13.7 million, the company faces a widening net loss ($41.4 million in Q1 2026) due to aggressive R&D spending on its upsized Phase 3 DECLARATION trial for VYD2311. With cash reserves of $184.2 million as of March 31, 2026, supplemented by a $20 million ATM raise in April, the company has a runway to fund operations through its highly anticipated Q3 2026 pivotal data readout. However, management's explicit going concern warning and the binary risk associated with the upcoming VYD2311 data warrant a cautious 'Hold' stance until clinical efficacy and regulatory pathways are clarified.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$10.00

High · most bullish analyst$10.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$0.5020%

VYD2311 fails to show sufficient neutralizing activity against newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the DECLARATION trial, or safety concerns emerge. With PEMGARDA sales vulnerable to variant shifts and a going concern warning in place, the company faces severe liquidity constraints and is forced to execute highly dilutive financing or halt operations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$5.0050%

VYD2311 meets its primary endpoints in the DECLARATION trial, but commercial uptake is gradual due to ongoing regulatory scrutiny, variant evolution, and specialized administration requirements. The company successfully utilizes its ATM facility to extend its cash runway, avoiding immediate insolvency but resulting in moderate shareholder dilution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$10.0030%

The Phase 3 DECLARATION trial for VYD2311 delivers strong topline data in Q3 2026, demonstrating robust neutralizing activity against dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants with a streamlined 30-minute post-dose monitoring window. This leads to rapid FDA approval and commercial launch, significantly expanding the addressable market among immunocompromised individuals and establishing the INVYMAB platform's capability for rapid serial antibody generation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proprietary INVYMAB platform designed for rapid, serial generation of monoclonal antibodies to adapt to viral mutations.
Established commercial footprint with PEMGARDA, generating $13.7 million in Q1 2026 net product revenue.
Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) recommendation to reduce VYD2311 post-dose monitoring from 2 hours to 30 minutes, lowering barriers to clinical adoption.
Diversification efforts underway with preclinical candidates targeting RSV (VBY329) and measles (VMS063).

Key Investment Risks

High cash burn rate and explicit going concern warning, with an accumulated deficit of $995.9 million as of March 31, 2026.
Binary clinical and regulatory risk tied to the upcoming Q3 2026 VYD2311 Phase 3 DECLARATION trial data readout.
Extreme vulnerability to rapid viral evolution, which can render existing monoclonal antibodies ineffective and disrupt commercial guidance.
Potential for significant shareholder dilution through the usage of at-the-market (ATM) offering facilities to fund operations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of VYD2311 to meet primary safety or immunogenicity endpoints in the Phase 3 DECLARATION trial.
Inability to secure additional financing or strategic partnerships, leading to a liquidity crisis within the next 12 months.
Emergence of a dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant that completely evades neutralization by both PEMGARDA and VYD2311.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.