Invitation Homes Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Residential Beta (adjusted)0.89 Intrinsic Value $29.92median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $26.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $15.6B Enterprise Value $24B Shares Outstanding 599.2M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Invitation Homes combines 97.1% Same Store occupancy, positive Q2 new-lease growth, rising Core FFO and AFFO per share, and a large liquidity position with slower organic growth: Q2 Same Store NOI rose only 1.5%, while year-to-date new-lease rent growth remained negative. Management raised FY 2026 Core FFO and AFFO guidance by one cent at the midpoint and has used favorable private-market home values to fund dispositions, debt reduction, and share repurchases. At the official August 28 closing price of $29.24, the operating resilience and dividend are balanced by modest Same Store growth, cost inflation, leverage, and execution risk from expanding development and homebuilding capabilities. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$33.39 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.0019% Occupancy falls below management's annual assumption, new-lease pricing weakens again, operating expenses outpace revenue, and Same Store NOI misses the lower end of guidance. Higher financing costs or weaker disposition pricing would further constrain capital allocation. The price target uses the official 52-week low as a transparent downside anchor. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.3958% Matches the consensus meanCore FFO and AFFO finish within management's raised guidance ranges, occupancy remains within or above the annual assumption, and moderate rent growth offsets operating-cost pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.0023% Occupancy remains near Q2's 97.1%, new-lease growth continues improving, Same Store NOI reaches the upper end of guidance, and dispositions continue to realize values above those implied by the public market. Successful integration of ResiBuilt and disciplined repurchases provide additional per-share support. The price target uses the official 52-week high as a transparent market anchor. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |