Invesco Ltd Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management Beta (adjusted)1.39 Intrinsic Value $72.91median of 5 methods · middle span $23-$158based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $30.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 140% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+140%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.4B Enterprise Value $14.6B Shares Outstanding 443.3M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Invesco entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter net long-term inflows reached $45.1 billion, adjusted operating margin rose to 37.5%, and net debt declined to $708.6 million. July remained flow-positive at $8.6 billion, although unfavorable markets reduced AUM by $59 billion and month-end AUM declined to $2.4471 trillion. The evidence supports a balanced stance: scale, diversified flow engines and improving leverage are material merits, while market-sensitive fees, sizable exposure to passive and QQQ assets, and continuing Fundamental Equities outflows limit conviction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$33.13 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.0021% Weak markets reduce the fee-earning asset base, net long-term flows turn non-positive, Fundamental Equities redemptions persist, and adjusted operating margin falls below the first-quarter 2026 level despite expense controls. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.1356% Matches the consensus meanFlows remain positive but moderate from the record first-half pace; AUM and revenue continue to move with markets, while expense control keeps adjusted operating margin near the mid-30s. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.0023% Sustained inflows across ETFs and Index, QQQ, the China joint venture and Private Markets, together with disciplined expenses, could preserve a high-30s adjusted operating margin and support further debt reduction and shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |