Inventiva ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Inventiva ADR

IVAEuronext Paris

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.81

Intrinsic Value $4.45median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2025

Market Price $3.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $817.3M

Shares Outstanding 236.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date23 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Inventiva is a high-conviction, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical play whose valuation is almost entirely tied to its lead asset, lanifibranor, a first-in-class pan-PPAR agonist. The company is currently conducting the NATiV3 Phase 3 trial for the treatment of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH) with advanced fibrosis (F2-F3). Following a comprehensive capital restructuring in mid-2026—which included a $120M equity and €150M debt refinancing alongside the simplification of its EIB warrants—Inventiva has secured a cash runway extending into mid-2027. This runway comfortably covers the highly anticipated NATiV3 topline data readout scheduled for Q4 2026. If successful, lanifibranor's differentiated multi-receptor mechanism (targeting PPARα, PPARδ, and PPARγ) could position it as a best-in-class oral therapy in a multi-billion-dollar market, paving the way for regulatory submissions in 1H 2027.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.80

Mean target$15.13

High · most bullish analyst$26.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.8020%

NATiV3 Phase 3 trial fails to meet its co-primary endpoints or is marred by safety concerns (such as class-related weight gain or fluid retention), leading to a clinical hold or failure to support regulatory filings. With lanifibranor as its sole clinical asset, a trial failure would severely impair the company's valuation, leaving it with a tight cash runway and limited strategic alternatives.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.1350%

Matches the consensus mean

NATiV3 Phase 3 trial achieves positive topline results in Q4 2026, confirming the strong efficacy trends observed in Phase 2b. Efficacy is sufficient to support NDA and MAA submissions in 1H 2027. The company successfully navigates its cash runway to mid-2027, utilizing its optimized capital structure and newly appointed leadership team to prepare for commercialization.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$26.0030%

NATiV3 Phase 3 trial meets both co-primary endpoints with high statistical significance, demonstrating superior efficacy in both MASH resolution and fibrosis improvement compared to placebo. Lanifibranor's oral pan-PPAR profile is recognized as highly differentiated from existing therapies, leading to rapid FDA/EMA regulatory filings in 1H 2027 and attracting a major pharmaceutical commercialization partner. The cash runway is further extended past 2027 via the full exercise of Tranche 3 warrants.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Differentiated pan-PPAR mechanism targeting all three isoforms (α, δ, γ) to simultaneously address steatosis, inflammation, and fibrosis.
Fully funded through the critical Q4 2026 Phase 3 NATiV3 topline readout following a major mid-2026 refinancing.
Simplified capital structure and reduced dilution risk after completing the EIB warrant restructuring in July 2026.
Strengthened executive leadership team with deep commercialization and regulatory experience, led by CEO Andrew Obenshain.

Key Investment Risks

Binary clinical trial risk associated with the upcoming NATiV3 Phase 3 topline readout in Q4 2026.
Class-related tolerability risks of PPAR agonists, specifically weight gain and fluid retention.
High reliance on a single clinical asset (lanifibranor) with no other active clinical-stage pipeline candidates.
Long-term funding dependency on future dilutive warrant exercises or additional capital raises post-2027.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the NATiV3 Phase 3 trial to meet co-primary histological endpoints.
Unexpected safety signals or clinical holds imposed by regulatory authorities.
Inability to secure a commercial partner or additional non-dilutive funding post-readout.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.