Intuitive Machines Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Intuitive Machines Inc

LUNRNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)1.56

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $14.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $2.3B

Enterprise Value $2.2B

Shares Outstanding 158.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Intuitive Machines has established substantial demand visibility through $1.762 billion of contracted backlog, $920 million of second-quarter bookings, a commercial satellite contract exceeding $600 million, and broader participation across civil, commercial, and national-security markets. The investment case nevertheless remains execution-dependent: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was negative $13.8 million, first-half free cash flow was negative $145.8 million, and the company must integrate Lanteris while converting a rapidly expanded backlog into profitable cash generation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$11.00

Mean target$29.50

High · most bullish analyst$43.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$11.0025%

The bear case assumes contract conversion delays, cost growth, spacecraft or launch setbacks, or integration problems prevent the company from reaching the lower end of 2026 revenue guidance and positive adjusted EBITDA. Continued negative free cash flow then reduces liquidity and increases the probability of additional financing or dilution.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$29.5055%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes continued strong revenue growth and backlog conversion, offset by normal program timing volatility, acquisition-integration costs, and continued investment in inventory, satellites, and ground infrastructure. Full-year revenue remains near management's stated range and profitability improves, but cash generation and program execution require further verification.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$43.0020%

The bull case assumes timely conversion of the expanded backlog, successful execution of the three-satellite commercial GEO program and national-security spacecraft awards, and effective integration of Lanteris. Revenue reaches management's 2026 guidance range, adjusted EBITDA turns positive, and the combined manufacturing, communications, mission-operations, and ground-infrastructure platform establishes a durable position as an integrated space prime.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Contracted backlog reached $1.762 billion at June 30, 2026, up approximately $1.55 billion from year-end 2025, providing materially improved revenue visibility.
Demand is diversified across commercial, civil, and national-security customers, including a commercial GEO satellite program exceeding $600 million and an 18-spacecraft missile-tracking support award.
The completed Lanteris acquisition expands Intuitive Machines from lunar services into larger-scale spacecraft manufacturing, while lunar-delivery and communications-network awards provide additional long-duration growth options.

Key Investment Risks

Profitability and cash conversion remain unproven at the enlarged scale: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was negative $13.8 million and first-half free cash flow was negative $145.8 million.
Backlog is not guaranteed revenue and depends on program execution, customer funding, contract scope, and schedule; the company reported a $15.5 million backlog adjustment that was mainly associated with descoping an IM-4 rideshare contract.
The company faces substantial integration, launch, spacecraft-performance, supplier, government-funding, and customer-concentration risks while simultaneously expanding manufacturing and network infrastructure.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.