Intuit Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Intuit Inc.

INTUNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value $641.55median of 6 methods · middle span $509-$913based on filings through 30 Apr 2026

Market Price $282.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 127% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+127%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $75.6B

Enterprise Value $78.5B

Shares Outstanding 277M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend9 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Intuit combines strong execution in Global Business Solutions, assisted tax, money, and mid-market offerings with an expanding AI-enabled product platform. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 14% and both GAAP operating income and diluted EPS rose 20%, while the strategic Big Bets grew 34%. The principal near-term concern is the FY2027 growth reset to 9%-10%, including approximately flat Mailchimp revenue and only 2%-3% TurboTax growth. At the August 28, 2026 closing price of $358.06, the risk-reward supports a Buy recommendation, but delivery against the FY2027 guidance floor and evidence of Mailchimp stabilization are essential.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets33 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$250.00

Mean target$451.32

High · most bullish analyst$921.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$250.0023%

Companywide growth falls below guidance as Mailchimp contracts, TurboTax volume pressure persists, and spending on customer acquisition and AI products fails to generate sufficient adoption. A lower growth profile and weaker confidence in execution drive valuation compression.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$451.3258%

Matches the consensus mean

Intuit delivers within its 9%-10% FY2027 revenue-growth guidance, Global Business Solutions grows within the guided 13%-14% range, and Mailchimp is approximately flat. Investment in customer growth and AI products provides a foundation for later reacceleration.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$921.0019%

Intuit exceeds FY2027 guidance as Global Business Solutions and the Big Bets sustain strong growth, Intuit Enterprise Suite gains mid-market adoption, and AI-enabled workflows improve customer acquisition and monetization. Mailchimp stabilizes while operating leverage and capital returns support a premium valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal 2026 revenue increased 14% to $21.4 billion, while GAAP operating income and diluted EPS each increased 20%.
Global Business Solutions revenue increased 16%, Online Ecosystem revenue increased 19%, and QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue increased 23% in fiscal 2026.
Intuit's assisted tax, money, and mid-market Big Bets collectively grew 34% and represented 30% of fiscal 2026 revenue.
The expanding mid-market platform adds conversational intelligence, multi-entity accounting, industry workflows, and migration capabilities; Intuit reported that 95% of businesses migrate to Enterprise Suite within 30 days or less.

Key Investment Risks

FY2027 total revenue growth guidance of 9%-10% represents a material deceleration from fiscal 2026 growth of 14%.
Mailchimp is expected to decline 1% or remain flat in FY2027, making stabilization a key execution test.
Total U.S. TurboTax units declined 2% in fiscal 2026, while FY2027 TurboTax revenue growth guidance is only 2%-3%.
AI-product adoption and reliability remain execution risks; Intuit expressly cautions that its intelligence technology can make mistakes and that product availability may vary.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.