International Seaways Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.27 Intrinsic Value $44.89median of 6 methods · middle span $39-$62based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $114.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 61% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.7B Enterprise Value $6.2B Shares Outstanding 49.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary International Seaways (INSW) is positioned as a premier cash-compounding maritime infrastructure play rather than a highly leveraged cyclical. The company's ultra-low leverage (sub-7% loan-to-value) and industry-leading cash breakeven rate of approximately $14,900/day insulate it from cyclical downturns while allowing it to capture massive spot-market upside. With 82% spot market exposure and full ownership of the Tankers International pool, INSW is uniquely structured to benefit from ongoing geopolitical disruptions and structural ton-mile growth. While the market fears a rate collapse post-geopolitical normalization, such an event is likely to trigger a ton-mile bullwhip and severe Asian discharge congestion, further tightening vessel supply. Backed by a robust 85% dividend payout policy, INSW offers an exceptional yield and capital return profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$88.00 Mean target$100.00 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $88.0015% A rapid resolution of Middle East conflicts leads to a temporary spot rate collapse (the 'reopening saddle') before congestion premiums kick in. The hard 85% dividend payout ratio limits cash hoarding, forcing the company to dilute shareholders or take on debt to replace its aging VLCC fleet as newbuild costs exceed $120 million. Base CaseCentral scenario $100.0060% Matches the consensus meanSpot tanker rates normalize slightly but remain highly profitable, averaging $40,000 to $50,000/day. The company successfully integrates its newly acquired Suezmax pool assets and completes its LR1 newbuilding program. Capital returns remain strong with a blended dividend yield of around 10%, and the stock trades closer to its consensus fair value. Bull CaseUpside scenario $120.0025% Geopolitical disruptions persist through 2026, keeping spot TCE rates elevated above $100,000/day. The delivery of the remaining dual-fuel ready LR1 newbuildings in Q3 2026 expands high-margin product carrier capacity. Strong cash generation allows the company to maintain its high supplemental dividends while comfortably funding fleet renewals without relying on expensive debt markets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |