International Money Express Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryTransaction & Payment Processing Services Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value $5.37median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $11.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 53% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-53%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $347.1M Enterprise Value $310.3M Shares Outstanding 30.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary International Money Express, Inc. (IMXI) is currently in a definitive agreement to be acquired by The Western Union Company (WU) for $16.00 per share in cash, valuing the company at approximately $500 million. While the company's standalone Q1 2026 financial performance deteriorated significantly—with revenue declining 15.5% year-over-year and net income dropping to $0.51 million—the stock's valuation is heavily anchored to the pending acquisition. The transaction has received almost all necessary state and international regulatory approvals, with only one U.S. state approval remaining. Consequently, the investment thesis is primarily a merger arbitrage play, justifying a 'Hold' recommendation as the stock trades close to the $16.00 deal price. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.00 Mean target$16.00 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The merger agreement is terminated due to regulatory roadblocks (e.g., failure to obtain the final state approval in New York) or other material adverse effects. On a standalone basis, IMXI's valuation would contract significantly to reflect its weakened Q1 2026 fundamentals, high debt levels, and declining transaction volumes. Base CaseCentral scenario The acquisition by Western Union successfully closes in the second half of 2026 at the agreed-upon price of $16.00 per share in cash. The final pending state regulatory approval is obtained without major structural concessions, delivering certain value to shareholders. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |