International Business Machines Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryIT Consulting & Other Services Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $219.47median of 6 methods · middle span $159-$280based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $225.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $212.6B Enterprise Value $267.4B Shares Outstanding 954.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary IBM retains credible hybrid-cloud, AI and infrastructure growth assets, but the second-quarter shortfall and reduction of FY2026 constant-currency revenue guidance to 4%-5% materially raise the execution bar. Red Hat grew 11%, Data grew 19% and Distributed Infrastructure grew 37%, while Transaction Processing declined 8%, IBM Z declined 42% and total Infrastructure declined 7%. The continued expectation for roughly USD 1 billion of year-over-year free-cash-flow growth and the increased dividend provide downside support. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$174.00 Mean target$244.16 High · most bullish analyst$350.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $174.0024% Revenue growth falls below 4% as delayed large deals persist, Red Hat loses double-digit momentum and Transaction Processing remains negative beyond the mainframe-cycle comparison. Heavy investment and integration demands then make the expected free-cash-flow increase harder to achieve. Base CaseCentral scenario $244.1656% Matches the consensus meanIBM delivers within its revised 4%-5% constant-currency revenue-growth range and approximately USD 1 billion free-cash-flow increase, with Red Hat and Data growth offsetting weaker Transaction Processing and cyclical IBM Z results. Execution improves, but the second-quarter miss and acquisition-integration workload limit confidence in near-term upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $350.0020% IBM reaches the upper end of its 4%-5% constant-currency growth outlook as Red Hat sustains double-digit growth, Distributed Infrastructure converts its approximately USD 500 million backlog, and new IBM Z and LinuxONE architecture broadens future workload demand. Productivity initiatives preserve the free-cash-flow objective while recent quantum investments expand long-duration optionality. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |