International Bancshares Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $58.10median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $69.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $4.6B Shares Outstanding 62.2M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary International Bancshares Corporation (IBOC) represents a highly profitable, conservative regional banking franchise operating in the robust economic corridors of Texas and Oklahoma. The company consistently delivers industry-leading profitability metrics, including a Return on Assets (ROA) well above its peer group and a highly efficient operating model. Backed by a strong capital position and a disciplined credit culture, IBOC is well-positioned to navigate shifting interest rate environments while returning capital to shareholders through growing dividends and share repurchases. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$87.00 Mean target$87.00 High · most bullish analyst$87.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $87.00 A sharp economic downturn in the regional markets of Texas and Oklahoma leads to deteriorating credit quality, particularly within the commercial real estate and construction portfolios. Rapidly declining interest rates compress net interest margins faster than deposit costs can be adjusted, while intense competition for deposits forces funding costs higher, severely impacting profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $87.00 Matches the consensus meanInterest rates stabilize or decline modestly, leading to a gradual normalization of net interest margins. Deposit costs remain manageable through disciplined pricing. Credit quality remains strong with low non-performing asset ratios, and the bank continues to grow its balance sheet moderately. Capital return remains steady via the recently increased dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $87.00 The Federal Reserve maintains elevated interest rates longer than anticipated, allowing IBOC to sustain high yields on its investment and loan portfolios. Meanwhile, deposit costs remain controlled due to strong customer relationships and a high proportion of non-interest-bearing accounts. Loan demand in Texas and Oklahoma accelerates, driven by cross-border trade and regional economic expansion, leading to double-digit earnings growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |