Interdigital Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Interdigital Inc

IDCCNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)1.29

Intrinsic Value $151.80median of 6 methods · middle span $104-$238based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $339.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 55% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-55%)

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Market Cap $8.8B

Enterprise Value $8.5B

Shares Outstanding 25.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

InterDigital is a premier research and development engine that monetizes foundational wireless, video, and AI technologies through high-margin patent licensing. With the world's top three smartphone vendors (Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi) under license through the end of the decade, the company has established a highly predictable recurring revenue base. Growth is increasingly driven by expansion into adjacent high-potential markets such as Smart TVs, IoT, and connected automobiles, positioning the company well to achieve its long-term target of $1 billion in ARR by 2030.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$425.00

Mean target$462.67

High · most bullish analyst$488.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$425.0015%

Prolonged litigation and regulatory scrutiny over FRAND licensing terms delay contract renewals. Antitrust challenges, such as the Disney complaint, create headwinds for the video streaming licensing program. Elevated intellectual property enforcement costs compress operating margins, and slower-than-expected IoT adoption limits non-smartphone growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$462.6760%

Matches the consensus mean

InterDigital steadily executes on its core smartphone licensing program while expanding its CE/IoT/Auto footprint. The company maintains its reaffirmed FY 2026 revenue guidance of $675 million to $775 million. Recurring cash flows remain robust, supported by long-term fixed-fee agreements, allowing for continued capital return via dividends and share buybacks.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$488.0025%

Rapid adoption of 5G Advanced and early 6G standards accelerates licensing momentum in non-smartphone verticals. The Smart TV thesis is validated by further major OEM agreements following the LG Electronics deal, driving ARR significantly ahead of the 2030 target. Favorable FRAND court rulings globally force unlicensed players to sign premium agreements, leading to substantial catch-up revenues.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Predictable recurring revenue with top three global smartphone OEMs licensed through 2030.
Strong operating leverage with high-margin licensing model yielding robust adjusted EBITDA margins.
Proven track record of standards leadership with multiple 3GPP chair positions driving future 6G IP value.
Consistent capital return program, including a solid dividend yield and active share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration of revenue among a small number of major smartphone manufacturers.
Inherent volatility in quarterly results due to the timing of catch-up revenues and contract renewals.
Rising intellectual property enforcement and litigation costs to defend and monetize the patent portfolio.
Regulatory and legal risks surrounding FRAND licensing frameworks globally.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Loss of a major smartphone licensing contract or failure to renew key agreements upon expiration.
Adverse regulatory or court rulings invalidating core cellular or video patents.
A structural shift away from standardized technologies, reducing the relevance of InterDigital's IP portfolio.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.