Intercorp Financial Services Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.62 Intrinsic Value $64.64median of 5 methods · middle span $6-$251based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $54.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6B Shares Outstanding 114.3M diluted Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend23 Apr 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Intercorp Financial Services (IFS) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a leading financial holding company in Peru, operating across banking, insurance, wealth management, and payments. The company is demonstrating robust earnings momentum, highlighted by a 35% YoY net income increase in Q1 2026 and an impressive ROE of 19.4%. IFS is successfully executing its digital transformation strategy, which has driven its efficiency ratio down to 36.6%. The strategic acquisition of InFinance XP for $130 million enhances its consumer finance capabilities and digital ecosystem. Supported by a resilient Peruvian economy forecasted to grow around 3% in 2026, a higher-for-longer interest rate environment that supports net interest margins, and a strong capital return profile highlighted by a recent dividend increase to $1.80 per share, IFS is well-positioned to deliver superior shareholder returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.21 Mean target$65.69 High · most bullish analyst$74.36 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Political instability in Peru intensifies ahead of upcoming elections, dampening private investment and consumer confidence. Severe El Niño weather impacts disrupt key economic sectors, leading to a spike in non-performing loans and forcing the cost of risk above 2.5%. Intense digital competition compresses margins, dragging ROE below 14%. Base CaseCentral scenario Peru's GDP grows at a steady pace of ~3% with inflation stable at ~2%. IFS meets its full-year 2026 guidance, achieving high-single-digit loan growth, a cost-to-income ratio below 37%, and a year-end ROE above 17%. Net interest margins remain supported by delayed rate cuts, and credit quality remains stable with a manageable cost of risk. Bull CaseUpside scenario The Peruvian economy outperforms growth expectations, driven by strong copper exports and stable inflation. IFS achieves high-single-digit loan growth while maintaining its cost of risk below 1.5%. The integration of InFinance XP yields rapid digital synergies, accelerating consumer finance profitability. ROE remains consistently above 19%, and the efficiency ratio improves further below 35%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |