Intercontinental Exchange Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $201.17median of 6 methods · middle span $133-$261based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $151.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $85B Enterprise Value $103.8B Shares Outstanding 567M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ICE combines durable recurring data and connectivity revenue with transaction-sensitive exchanges and mortgage technology. Second-quarter 2026 net revenue increased 5%, recurring revenue increased 8%, adjusted EPS increased 5%, and adjusted free cash flow reached $2.6 billion for the first half. The proposed all-cash MarketAxess acquisition could complete ICE's institutional fixed-income execution offering and is expected by management to be adjusted-EPS accretive in its first full year, but it adds regulatory, integration and leverage risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$163.00 Mean target$185.93 High · most bullish analyst$232.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $140.0020% Transaction revenue weakens, the MarketAxess closing is delayed or burdened by regulatory conditions, and acquisition financing keeps leverage elevated. Slower recurring growth or margin compression would reduce the market's willingness to capitalize ICE's earnings at a premium. Base CaseCentral scenario $185.9355% Matches the consensus meanICE meets its 2026 recurring-revenue guidance, maintains an adjusted operating margin near current levels and closes MarketAxess during the announced first-half 2027 window. Integration benefits emerge gradually while debt-funded transaction risk limits multiple expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $210.0025% Recurring revenue maintains high-single-digit or better growth, exchange activity remains supportive, and MarketAxess closes on schedule. Successful integration, realization of the announced expense synergies and a return toward ICE's leverage target support an upside re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |