Intellia Therapeutics Dossier - Source-backed chat

Intellia Therapeutics

NTLANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.53

Intrinsic Value $33.24median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $12.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 174% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+174%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1.7B

Shares Outstanding 130.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Intellia offers a favorable but highly event-driven risk-reward profile. Lonvo-z has crossed the principal efficacy hurdle after HAELO showed an 87% placebo-adjusted reduction in mean monthly HAE attacks and 62% of treated patients were both attack-free and ongoing-therapy-free during the efficacy period. A rolling BLA is underway, with FDA acceptance anticipated in the second half of 2026 and a potential U.S. launch in the first half of 2027. Nex-z provides additional late-stage optionality after enrollment resumed in both Phase 3 ATTR trials, but a prior Grade 4 hepatic event that prompted FDA holds makes safety a material counterweight.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$23.94

High · most bullish analyst$61.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.0020%

The lonvo-z filing is delayed, receives a complete response letter, or develops a less favorable durability or safety profile, while nex-z experiences another severe hepatic event that disrupts one or both MAGNITUDE trials. This combination would impair both the near-term regulatory catalyst and the principal late-stage pipeline option.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$23.9456%

Matches the consensus mean

Lonvo-z progresses through BLA acceptance with no material deterioration in its benefit-risk profile, while launch execution and reimbursement remain unproven. MAGNITUDE-2 completes enrollment, but nex-z retains a significant safety discount because the Phase 3 program previously experienced a Grade 4 hepatic event and clinical holds.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$61.0024%

FDA accepts and reviews the lonvo-z BLA on the guided timeline, the HAELO efficacy and safety profile remains durable, launch preparation supports a first-half 2027 U.S. introduction, and MAGNITUDE-2 completes enrollment without another severe hepatic event. Regulatory de-risking of the first potential in vivo gene-editing product and restored confidence in nex-z would support substantial re-rating.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

HAELO met its primary endpoint with an 87% placebo-adjusted reduction in mean monthly HAE attacks.
Sixty-two percent of lonvo-z recipients were both attack-free and ongoing-therapy-free during the six-month efficacy evaluation period, compared with 11% on placebo.
The rolling lonvo-z BLA and resumed nex-z Phase 3 enrollment provide multiple identifiable regulatory and clinical catalysts.

Key Investment Risks

Lonvo-z remained under regulatory review preparation rather than approved as of the latest issuer update, leaving filing acceptance, review outcome, labeling, and launch execution unresolved.
The FDA imposed holds on both nex-z Phase 3 trials following Grade 4 liver-transaminase elevations and increased bilirubin in a treated MAGNITUDE patient; the holds were later lifted with enhanced safety measures.
The valuation remains highly sensitive to a small number of clinical and regulatory events because neither lead program had obtained marketing approval as of the research date.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.