Intel Corporation Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.84 Intrinsic Value $34.47median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $120.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 71% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-71%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $634.3B Enterprise Value $672.5B Shares Outstanding 5.3B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Intel's operating recovery has become materially more visible: Q2 2026 revenue rose 25% year over year, GAAP gross margin reached 40.4%, consolidated operating margin returned to 11.1%, and DCAI revenue increased 59%. Intel 18A is shipping in client and server products, while 18A-P entered risk production. The offset is substantial execution risk: Intel Foundry still lost $2.089 billion in Q2, substantially all foundry activity remains internal, the 14A investment case depends partly on securing significant external commitments, and supply and geopolitical disruptions remain material. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$114.88 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0025% Revenue falls below the low end of Q3 guidance, gross margin misses guidance, or supply constraints prevent Intel from converting demand into shipments. Foundry losses could widen if 18A economics improve more slowly than expected or if significant external 14A commitments fail to materialize. Disruption to Intel's Israel manufacturing or development operations would add material operational downside. Base CaseCentral scenario $114.8856% Matches the consensus meanIntel delivers within its Q3 revenue and gross-margin guidance, DCAI remains the principal growth engine, client demand is steady, and 18A volumes continue increasing. Foundry losses narrow gradually but remain material because external revenue is still small and leading-edge ramps carry high unit costs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0019% Demand for server CPUs, purpose-built silicon and AI-related compute remains strong; Q3 results meet or exceed the top of Intel's revenue range; gross margin exceeds guidance; higher 18A yields and volumes accelerate Foundry loss reduction; and Intel announces meaningful external demand commitments for 14A. Continued adoption of Core Ultra Series 3 and Xeon 6+ would reinforce evidence that process execution is translating into competitive products. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |