Inspired Entertainment Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryCasinos & Gaming Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $3.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $97.9M Enterprise Value $394.1M Shares Outstanding 29.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (INSE) is successfully executing a strategic pivot from a capital-intensive, seasonal retail solutions business to a high-margin, highly scalable digital core. Following the divestiture of its holiday parks business and restructuring of its pub estate, digital operations now represent approximately 60% of total EBITDA. This structural shift has driven dramatic margin expansion, with Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by 1,100 basis points year-over-year to 41%. Despite near-term revenue headwinds from portfolio rationalization, the underlying business is growing at 15% YoY, led by the Interactive segment (+38% YoY). With a clear path to 45% EBITDA margins, aggressive deleveraging, and a strong pipeline of digital content, INSE offers a compelling risk-reward profile at its current valuation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.00 Mean target$13.17 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Regulatory headwinds in the UK severely impact Interactive profitability, while competitive pressures from larger peers (e.g., Light & Wonder, Aristocrat) slow North American market share gains. High debt levels limit capital allocation flexibility, and leverage remains elevated above 3.5x. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully scales its Interactive and Virtual Sports segments in North America and Europe, offsetting the impact of the UK remote gaming duty tax increase. Adjusted EBITDA margins reach the targeted 45% for the full year 2026, and net leverage is reduced to below 3.0x. Valuation multiples expand as the market recognizes the higher-quality, less seasonal digital earnings stream. Bull CaseUpside scenario Accelerated digital transition drives Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 45% faster than expected, supported by high-margin SaaS distribution agreements (e.g., Playtech) and strong adoption of Virtual Soccer Bet Builder during the 2026 World Cup. Deleveraging continues ahead of schedule, reducing net leverage below 2.5x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |