Insmed Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Insmed Inc

INSMNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $108.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $23.7B

Enterprise Value $23.7B

Shares Outstanding 230.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Insmed entered the second half of 2026 with strong BRINSUPRI launch momentum: second-quarter revenue reached $309.2 million, increased 49% sequentially, and prompted management to raise full-year guidance to $1.25-$1.40 billion. ARIKAYCE continued to grow, Japan approved BRINSUPRI on August 24, and TPIP produced encouraging 12-month open-label PAH data. These developments strengthen the operating outlook, but the $118.54 issuer-hosted share quote already reflects substantial expectations. Hold is therefore the valuation-disciplined conclusion pending further BRINSUPRI execution, ARIKAYCE regulatory progress, and randomized Phase 3 validation of TPIP.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets22 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$169.00

Mean target$200.05

High · most bullish analyst$243.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$169.0020%

BRINSUPRI falls below the raised guidance floor as uptake, persistence, reimbursement, or international commercialization disappoints; ARIKAYCE misses guidance or its label expansion is delayed; or randomized TPIP data fail to confirm the encouraging open-label PAH findings. Any combination would weaken confidence in the company's stated multi-product peak-revenue opportunity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$200.0555%

Matches the consensus mean

BRINSUPRI executes within the $1.25-$1.40 billion 2026 guidance range, ARIKAYCE remains within its $450-$470 million guidance range, and TPIP development advances without definitive Phase 3 validation during the near-term horizon. Japan approval incrementally broadens BRINSUPRI's opportunity, while clinical and regulatory execution remain the principal swing factors.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$243.0025%

BRINSUPRI finishes 2026 near or above the top of its raised guidance, Japan contributes to durable international growth, ARIKAYCE obtains a broader newly diagnosed MAC indication, and TPIP's randomized Phase 3 program validates the sustained clinical improvements observed in the PAH extension study. This combination would support a materially larger and more diversified respiratory franchise.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

BRINSUPRI generated $309.2 million in second-quarter 2026 revenue, 49% above the first quarter, leading management to raise 2026 guidance to $1.25-$1.40 billion.
Japan approved BRINSUPRI for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis in patients aged 12 years and older, extending approvals across the United States, Europe, and Japan.
ARIKAYCE generated $116.3 million in second-quarter revenue, up 8% year over year, while management maintained $450-$470 million full-year guidance.
TPIP's 12-month PAH extension data showed sustained improvements across exercise capacity, NT-proBNP, functional class, and REVEAL Lite 2.0 measures, supporting continued Phase 3 development.

Key Investment Risks

The raised BRINSUPRI outlook creates a high execution threshold and remains sensitive to patient uptake, treatment persistence, reimbursement, pricing, and international launch timing.
TPIP's extension study was open-label and lacked a concurrent placebo control; Insmed cautioned that its efficacy endpoints may not predict results from randomized Phase 3 PALM-PAH.
ARIKAYCE's broader U.S. opportunity depends on regulatory review of the July 2026 supplemental application, while Japanese label expansion also remains subject to regulatory engagement.
BRINSUPRI and ARIKAYCE safety, market acceptance, manufacturing, reimbursement, and continued regulatory compliance remain material commercialization dependencies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.