Innovative Solutions And Support Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $11.50median of 5 methods · middle span $9-$22based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.78Price as of 17 Aug 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 54% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-54%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $443.5M Enterprise Value $487.2M Shares Outstanding 18.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date17 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Dec 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Innovative Solutions & Support Inc. (dba Innovative Aerosystems) is successfully transitioning from a niche avionics supplier into a potential consolidator within the aerospace aftermarket. By integrating high-value product lines acquired from Honeywell and Moog, the company has restored its gross margins above 50% and significantly expanded its recurring aftermarket revenue base. While management's long-term target of $250 million in annual revenue by FY2029 is highly ambitious, the stock remains fundamentally attractive even under a more conservative growth trajectory due to strong operating cash flows and sticky defense-related programs. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$28.25 High · most bullish analyst$34.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.0015% Integration bottlenecks at the Exton facility, rising raw material or labor costs, and slower-than-expected avionics retrofit contract conversions. Geopolitical or supply chain disruptions pressure margins, and revenue growth decelerates, leading to a contraction in valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario $25.0060% Steady integration of acquired product lines contributes to a realistic revenue trajectory of $140–$150 million by FY2028. Gross margins stabilize around 51-53%, and net margins remain strong at approximately 19%, supported by sticky military contracts (e.g., F-16, KC-46A) and commercial aftermarket retrofits. Bull CaseUpside scenario $34.0025% Accelerated organic growth driven by rapid commercial aviation retrofit demand and seamless integration of the newly acquired Honeywell power generator and avionics assets. Backlog expands rapidly, and the company achieves its $250 million revenue target ahead of schedule, driving significant operating leverage and multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |