Ingersoll Rand Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ingersoll Rand Inc

IRNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIndustrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value $74.80median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$87based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $75.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $29.2B

Enterprise Value $32.1B

Shares Outstanding 387.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ingersoll Rand entered the second half of 2026 with improving organic momentum: second-quarter organic revenue increased 4.1%, reported orders rose 5%, and adjusted EPS advanced 7%. Precision and Science Technologies was the strongest operating contributor, with 7.4% organic order growth and a 200-basis-point margin expansion. Offsetting these strengths, Industrial Technologies and Services produced approximately flat organic orders and a 180-basis-point margin decline as inflation, pricing pressure in China and commercial investments weighed on profitability. Management maintained adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.13-$2.19 billion and adjusted EPS guidance of $3.45-$3.57 while lifting reported and organic revenue-growth expectations. The risk-reward is therefore balanced: execution and portfolio quality support durable growth, but second-half phasing, IT&S margin pressure and acquisition execution remain material.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$82.00

Mean target$96.25

High · most bullish analyst$109.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$82.0024%

IT&S pricing fails to offset inflation, China and long-cycle project weakness persist, and the required second-half revenue and EBITDA phasing is not achieved. Acquisition integration or working-capital demands further pressure profitability and cash conversion, causing results to fall below the low ends of the 2026 organic-growth, adjusted EBITDA or adjusted EPS ranges.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$96.2556%

Matches the consensus mean

The company delivers within its updated 2026 ranges: organic revenue growth remains between 1% and 3%, adjusted EBITDA reaches $2.13-$2.19 billion and adjusted EPS reaches $3.45-$3.57. P&ST strength partly offsets continued IT&S margin pressure, while free-cash-flow conversion approaches management's approximately 95% objective.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$109.0020%

Organic demand remains at or above the second-quarter pace, P&ST sustains strong life-sciences and precision-technology demand, and IRX execution improves IT&S price-cost performance. Results finish near the high end of the 2026 EPS range while acquisitions add growth without materially weakening margins or cash conversion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Organic momentum improved materially from a 0.3% decline in the first quarter to 4.1% growth in the second quarter, while second-quarter reported orders increased 5%.
P&ST delivered 7.4% organic order growth, 3.9% organic revenue growth and a 31.5% adjusted EBITDA margin in the second quarter, an expansion of 200 basis points.
Liquidity was $3.8 billion and net leverage was 1.7 times at June 30, 2026; the company also repurchased $240 million of shares during the second quarter.

Key Investment Risks

IT&S adjusted EBITDA margin declined 180 basis points to 26.8% as China price-cost pressure and continued commercial investments offset revenue growth.
The 2026 outlook assumes 52% of revenue and 54% of adjusted EBITDA will be delivered in the second half, increasing sensitivity to order conversion and execution timing.
The acquisition-led strategy creates integration and capital-allocation risk; the company deployed $110 million to M&A in the second quarter and had additional transactions pending or closing.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.