ING Groep NV ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)0.89 Intrinsic Value $20.38median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $34.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $97.5B Shares Outstanding 3B diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ING entered the second half of 2026 with strong commercial momentum, a 14.5% four-quarter rolling return on tangible equity, a 13.1% CET1 ratio, accelerating lending and deposit growth, and upgraded 2026-2027 income and return expectations. Capital remains aligned with management's approximately 13% target and supports cash dividends and repurchases. The balanced stance reflects execution, credit, interest-rate, expense and regulatory risks and, critically. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$33.83 High · most bullish analyst$37.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.0019% Interest-rate changes, weaker borrower creditworthiness, higher expenses, geopolitical disruption or regulatory costs erode income and raise risk costs. A sustained return shortfall or CET1 below management's target would reduce distribution capacity and weaken the operating thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.8358% Matches the consensus meanING delivers its upgraded return outlook with moderating but positive lending, deposit and fee momentum, while CET1 remains around 13% and shareholder distributions continue under the stated payout policy. Bull CaseUpside scenario $37.5023% Commercial momentum persists, fee and interest income continue expanding, risk costs remain contained, and ING delivers return on tangible equity above 16% in 2027 while maintaining CET1 near its target. Sustained capital generation permits continued cash dividends and additional repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |