Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

Infosys entered FY27 with resilient but moderate growth: Q1 constant-currency revenue increased 2.4% year over year and 1.0% sequentially, while operating margin reached 21.1%. AI-related revenue represented 8.2% of revenue, large-deal total contract value was $3.6 billion with 61% net new, and free cash flow was $955 million. Management nevertheless guided to only 1.5%-3.0% FY27 constant-currency growth while retaining a 20%-22% margin range. These indicators support a balanced stance: AI monetization, deal wins and cash generation are constructive.

Sign in / Sign up to read more
This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$9.00
Mean target$11.85
High · most bullish analyst$14.10
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$9.0020%

Demand or deal-conversion weakness pushes FY27 constant-currency revenue growth below the 1.5% guidance floor, while AI, talent and platform investment pressure operating margin below 20%.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$11.8555%
Matches the consensus mean

Infosys delivers within its 1.5%-3.0% FY27 constant-currency revenue-growth guidance and maintains operating margin within the stated 20%-22% range. Q1's 21.1% margin, $955 million of free cash flow and 61% net-new share of large-deal value provide execution support, while the modest guidance range limits the near-term growth case.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$14.1025%

Infosys reaches the upper end of its 1.5%-3.0% FY27 constant-currency growth guidance, sustains operating margin near the upper end of the 20%-22% range, and converts its 8.2% AI revenue share and $3.6 billion Q1 large-deal total contract value into stronger subsequent growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Sign in / Sign up

Explore this dossier

AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.