InflaRx NV Dossier - Source-backed chat

InflaRx NV

IFRXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)2.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $252M

Enterprise Value $236M

Shares Outstanding 147.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

InflaRx N.V. is undergoing a critical strategic pivot, streamlining its operations to focus resources on its oral C5aR inhibitor, izicopan (INF904), which represents its highest-value asset. By executing a 30% workforce reduction and scaling back commercial spending on Gohibic (vilobelimab), the company has extended its cash runway into 2027. The investment thesis rests on the clinical utility and commercial potential of izicopan in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) and other severe renal/inflammatory indications, especially as competing therapies face regulatory scrutiny.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$2.90

Mean target$7.42

High · most bullish analyst$13.53

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$2.0015%

Izicopan clinical trials yield inconclusive or unfavorable safety/efficacy data, or the company fails to secure a development partner. Continued cash burn forces highly dilutive capital raises, driving the stock toward historical lows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$7.0060%

InflaRx successfully advances izicopan into Phase 2b development for HS and completes its PK bridging study in China. Operational discipline keeps cash burn low, and the company maintains its runway into 2027, supporting a valuation aligned with consensus analyst targets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$9.0025%

Izicopan demonstrates best-in-class efficacy and safety in upcoming trials, capturing a significant share of the $1B+ addressable market in HS and severe renal diseases. The company secures a high-value global pharmaceutical partnership, eliminating dilution risk and driving the stock toward the high analyst target.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strategic focus on izicopan (INF904), an oral small molecule targeting the high-value C5aR pathway with a potential $1B+ addressable market.
Significant cost-reduction measures, including a 30% workforce reduction and scaling back of Gohibic commercial spend, extending the cash runway.
Favorable competitive opening created by regulatory scrutiny over competing therapies like Amgen's avacopan.
Strong backing from prominent healthcare-dedicated institutional investors following recent capital raises.

Key Investment Risks

High clinical-stage binary risk; failure of izicopan in HS or renal trials would erase the majority of the company's valuation.
Going concern risk highlighted by management due to persistent operating losses and reliance on future capital raises or partnerships.
Commercial failure of Gohibic (vilobelimab), which has been written down and scaled back to reactive-only sales in the US.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to progress izicopan into Phase 2b trials or negative feedback from the FDA regarding study design.
Inability to secure a strategic development partner for late-stage clinical trials.
Severe clinical safety signals or lack of efficacy in the ongoing izicopan development program.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.