Impinj Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.61 Intrinsic Value $129.24median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $183.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.6B Enterprise Value $5.8B Shares Outstanding 30.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Impinj is a pure-play leader in RAIN RFID technology, uniquely positioned to benefit from secular growth in IoT connectivity and global regulatory mandates. Despite near-term macroeconomic headwinds and customer concentration risks, the company's technological moat, highlighted by the high-sensitivity M800 series and Gen2X platform, supports a strong long-term growth trajectory. The inflection toward GAAP profitability expected in 2026, combined with record endpoint IC bookings, provides a robust catalyst for valuation expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$144.00 Mean target$176.00 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $144.0015% Prolonged inventory digestion at key logistics customers, slower-than-expected retail demand recovery, and intense pricing pressure from diversified competitors like NXP Semiconductors limit revenue growth and delay GAAP profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $176.0060% Matches the consensus meanSteady recovery in retail apparel inventory cycles, continued rollout of RFID systems by major logistics partners like UPS, and successful transition to the M800 series as the primary volume runner support double-digit revenue growth and a return to full-year profitability in 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0025% Accelerated adoption of the EU Digital Product Passport (DPP) and rapid scaling of the custom ASIC program with major U.S. logistics providers drive endpoint IC volumes well ahead of expectations, leading to significant operating leverage and margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |