Imperial Oil Ltd Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $61.54median of 6 methods · middle span $43-$174based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $124.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $61.9B Enterprise Value $62.5B Shares Outstanding 478.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Imperial's integrated asset base generated C$2.23 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter, while its dividend and renewed repurchase authorization support shareholder returns. The counterweight is execution risk: second-quarter upstream production was below the original full-year guidance floor, and refinery disruptions caused management to reduce 2026 throughput guidance to 370-380 thousand barrels per day. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$109.53 Mean target$109.53 High · most bullish analyst$109.53 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $109.5323% C$135 per share. Upstream production finishes below 441 thousand boe/day, refinery throughput remains below 370 thousand barrels per day, and weaker commodity or refining conditions reduce cash generation. Continued operational disruptions would weaken confidence in the planned volume recovery and shareholder-return capacity. Base CaseCentral scenario $109.5356% Matches the consensus meanC$185 per share. Imperial delivers approximately the lower-to-middle portion of its 441-460 thousand boe/day upstream guidance, refinery throughput recovers into the revised 370-380 thousand barrel/day range, and dividends plus repurchases continue. Bull CaseUpside scenario $109.5321% C$220 per share. Imperial reaches the upper half of its 2026 upstream production range, restores refinery throughput to at least the revised range, benefits from supportive crude and refining markets, and completes the authorized repurchases before year-end. Strong free cash flow and a lower share count support the premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |