Immutep Limited ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Immutep Limited ADR

IMMAustralian Securities Exchange

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.81

Intrinsic Value $1.62median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2025

Market Price $4.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 64% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-64%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $33.5M

Enterprise Value −$32.2M

Shares Outstanding 147.4M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Immutep Ltd is a clinical-stage biotechnology company specializing in LAG-3 targeted immunotherapies for cancer and autoimmune diseases. The investment thesis has shifted to a Hold following the major setback in March 2026, when the company discontinued its pivotal Phase III TACTI-004 trial of its lead oncology candidate, eftilagimod alfa (efti), in first-line non-small cell lung cancer (1L NSCLC) due to futility. While this trial halt significantly impacts near-term oncology prospects, the company remains supported by a solid cash position of A$110.6 million (providing runway into H1 CY2028) and positive early-stage clinical progress for its first-in-class LAG-3 agonist, IMP761, in autoimmune diseases. Investors should remain on the sidelines until the root cause analysis of TACTI-004 is completed in Q3 CY2026 and a clearer clinical path forward for efti is established.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1.50

Mean target$1.50

High · most bullish analyst$1.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case assumes the TACTI-004 root cause analysis reveals systemic efficacy limitations of efti when combined with pembrolizumab and chemotherapy, severely damaging the asset's commercial potential and leading to the suspension of other ongoing efti trials. Furthermore, IMP761 encounters safety or tolerability issues during the MAD phase, and the company is forced to raise capital at highly depressed valuations to sustain operations as the cash runway shortens.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes Immutep successfully completes the wind-down of the TACTI-004 trial and delivers its root cause analysis in Q3 CY2026, which helps refine future clinical designs for efti in other indications (such as soft tissue sarcoma and breast cancer). Meanwhile, IMP761 successfully completes its Phase I MAD phase in Q3 CY2026, demonstrating a favorable safety profile and paving the way for Phase II development. The cash runway remains sufficient to fund operations into H1 CY2028, avoiding immediate highly dilutive equity raises.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Immutep's bull case is anchored by its first-in-class, late-stage lead asset, eftilagimod alpha (efti), which targets the highly promising LAG-3 immune-control pathway. Efti is advancing in a registrational Phase 3 trial (TACTI-004) for first-line non-small cell lung cancer (1L NSCLC) and has shown strong clinical efficacy in combination with pembrolizumab in PD-(L)1 refractory cancer patients. Additionally, the company possesses a diversified pipeline including IMP761, a first-in-class LAG-3 agonist with blockbuster potential in treating autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease, alongside strategic partnerships with global pharma leaders like Merck, GSK, and Novartis.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Pioneering position and deep intellectual property in the LAG-3 immunotherapy space, covering both oncology (antagonists) and autoimmune diseases (agonists).
Strong balance sheet with A$110.6 million in cash and term deposits as of March 31, 2026, providing an expected cash runway extending into H1 CY2028.
Promising early clinical data for IMP761, which met its primary safety endpoint in the single ascending dose Phase I trial and demonstrated statistically significant pharmacodynamic activity.

Key Investment Risks

Clinical development risk highlighted by the recent discontinuation of the Phase III TACTI-004 trial in 1L NSCLC due to futility.
Regulatory and compliance risk, including the Nasdaq minimum bid price deficiency notice received in April 2026.
High cash burn rate relative to market capitalization, typical of pre-revenue clinical-stage biotechnology companies.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the TACTI-004 root cause analysis to identify a viable clinical or biomarker-driven path forward for eftilagimod alfa.
Safety concerns or lack of dose-dependent pharmacodynamic activity emerging from the IMP761 Phase I MAD trial phase.
Inability to regain compliance with Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement, leading to a potential delisting or forced reverse stock split.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.