Immunome Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Immunome Inc

IMNMNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.73

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $20.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $2.4B

Enterprise Value $2.2B

Shares Outstanding 117.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Immunome Inc. is a clinical-stage targeted oncology company transitioning into a commercial-stage entity. The company's near-term value is anchored by varegacestat, an oral gamma secretase inhibitor for desmoid tumors, which demonstrated an 84% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death in its Phase 3 RINGSIDE trial. With an NDA submitted in April 2026, varegacestat is positioned for a potential commercial launch in 2027. Beyond varegacestat, Immunome is rapidly advancing a highly differentiated antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) pipeline, led by IM-1021 (ROR1-targeted) and IM-1617 (solid tumor-targeted), both of which are in Phase 1 clinical trials. Backed by a robust cash position of $582.7 million as of March 31, 2026, which provides a runway into 2028, and a leadership team with deep experience in ADC development (including former Seagen executives), Immunome represents a compelling precision-oncology growth story.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$30.00

Mean target$36.31

High · most bullish analyst$40.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Varegacestat faces regulatory delays or a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA, pushing back its commercial launch and accelerating cash burn. Initial clinical data for IM-1021 or IM-1617 reveal safety concerns or insufficient efficacy, limiting the platform's potential. High R&D expenses and commercial launch preparation costs deplete cash reserves faster than anticipated, forcing dilutive equity financing before 2028.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Varegacestat receives FDA approval in late 2026 or early 2027, leading to a successful commercial launch in the desmoid tumor market. The company successfully files its MAA with the EMA by the end of 2026. Phase 1 trials for IM-1021 and IM-1617 progress smoothly, delivering positive initial safety and efficacy data in late 2026. Preclinical assets IM-1340 and IM-1335 transition to clinical stage with successful IND filings. The company maintains disciplined spending, preserving its cash runway into 2028.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Late-stage de-risked asset: Varegacestat met its primary endpoint in the Phase 3 RINGSIDE trial with a statistically significant 84% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death.
Robust cash runway: $582.7 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, provides funding into 2028, minimizing near-term dilution risks.
Differentiated ADC platform: Proprietary HC74 TOP1 inhibitor payload designed to overcome efflux-mediated resistance, powering a deep pipeline of solid tumor ADCs.
Experienced leadership: Management team includes industry veterans with a proven track record of designing, developing, and commercializing successful oncology therapies, including ADCs.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory risk: Potential delays or rejection of the varegacestat NDA by the FDA or the planned MAA by the EMA.
Clinical trial risk: Early-stage ADC programs (IM-1021, IM-1617) may fail to replicate preclinical efficacy or show unacceptable toxicity in Phase 1 trials.
Commercial execution risk: Desmoid tumors represent a niche market, and the company faces competition from established therapies like SpringWorks' nirogacestat.
High cash burn: Accelerated R&D and commercial readiness spending could shorten the projected cash runway if commercial revenues are delayed.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

FDA issuance of a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for varegacestat.
Failure to submit the varegacestat MAA to the EMA by the end of 2026.
Severe adverse safety events in the Phase 1 trials of IM-1021 or IM-1617 leading to clinical holds.
Significant acceleration of cash burn rate that reduces the projected runway to less than 12 months.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.